fivethirtyeight raptor vs elo

Likewise, a player with a defensive RAPTOR of +3.4 would improve his team’s defensive performance. I could achieve that myself, say by picking the team with the better record to win by 5 points in every game, or even just picking the home team to win by 1 point. RAPTOR likewise values these things — not because we made any deliberate attempt to design the system that way but because the importance of those skills emerges naturally from the data. Higher ratings are taken to mean better te… We started with Elo ratings before introducing our CARMELO player projection system, which we then incorporated into our “CARM-Elo” season prediction model. 2020 NFL Predictions For the regular season and playoffs, updated after every game. Total RAPTOR. Do they provide prognostic value beyond the Vegas spread? nba basketball fivethirtyeight raptor basketball-stats nba-data nba-database Updated Mar 12, 2020 simonw / fivethirtyeight-datasette Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science and life. Plus-minus statistics have certain inherent limitations, and RAPTOR is subject to those, too. Actually, two sets of predictions: “RAPTOR” and “ELO”. RAPTOR ratings for players with at least 1,000 minutes played4 in a season since 2013-14 can be found in the table below. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. In both tests FiveThirtyEight’s Elo model does a lot better than I expected. Do they provide complementary prognostic value? Jazz. Mayweather Vs McGregor Tweets: mlb_elo: MLB Elo: nba_all_elo: The Complete History Of The NBA : nba_carmelo: The Complete History Of The NBA 2017-18 NBA Predictions: nba_elo: NBA Elo Ratings: nfl_elo: The Complete History Of The NFL 2017 NFL Predictions: quasi_winshares: The Twins’ Magical Run Will Likely Go Through The Yankees. A dataframe with 20492 rows representing every player broken out by season and era and 22 variables: With 679 data points, I think it’s perfectly reasonable to include both in the same linear regression model. FiveThirtyEight has been predicting NBA games for a few years now, based on a variant of Elo ratings, which in turn have roots in ranking chess players. Sep. 18, 2015. Jun. Data and code for FiveThirtyEight's NFL game. NBA Predictions (13) More NFL:Every team’s Elo history. Player Stats. J… Posted by. Edit 2: According to the RAPTORS player rating. Contribute to fivethirtyeightdata/fivethirtyeightdata development by creating an account on GitHub. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. There’s actually quite a lot of disagreement between the algorithms here. The R-squared is 0.210, which is modestly higher than the single-algorithm models (0.193 and 0.182). But for now, we’re excited to get your feedback, start the season, and put our metric to the test. The Elo … Press J to jump to the feed. Partisanship is determined by who sponsors the poll, rather than who conducts it. But it appreciates modern centers such as Nikola Jokić and Joel Embiid, as well as defensive stalwarts like Rudy Gobert. By default, these are filled in using the exact same Elo model. Fills in a my_prob1 field for every game using code in forecast.py. Per the analytics folks, the Bills still have a 75 percent chance of winning the division currently. We’ll see! For more detail on past RAPTORs, including the breakdown of box and on-off components, you can download files that list the regular season and playoffs separately, or a version that combines a player’s appearances over the course of the entire season5 into one file. Motivation. What NFL Quarterback Would You Want for the Next 5 Years? No obvious difference visually here, in my mind. Finally, we can use multivariable analysis to see whether the two algorithms provide complementary prognostic information. One method is Elo, a simple measure of strength based on game-by-game results. The passer gets more credit for an assisted dunk than an assisted midrange jumper, for instance. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. Initially, every competitor is assigned an initial rating (538 NBA uses 1300). We’ll have more ways for readers to see and use RAPTOR soon. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. Contribute to fivethirtyeight/nfl-elo-game development by creating an account on GitHub. RAPTOR is based exclusively on publicly available data. Evaluates the probabilities stored in my_prob1 against the ones in elo_prob1, and shows how those forecasts would have done in our game for every season since 1920. Filed under Football. We also have a historical version of RAPTOR called Approximate RAPTOR dating back to 1976-1977, the first season after the ABA-NBA merger, but that uses a far more limited range of data. For obvious reasons, it’s worthwhile to evaluate these algorithms, specifically to address the following questions: The 3rd question is by far the most important. It turns out that RAPTOR and ELO picked the home team to win in 69.1% and 70.5% of games, respectively. There are other player-tracking statistics we believe could be highly helpful to RAPTOR, especially more detailed measures of on-ball defense, so we hope to be able to revisit RAPTOR as additional data becomes available. @natesilver538, NBA (912 posts) The residual for each game is simply the actual point spread minus the predicted point spread. As you can see, RAPTOR generally loves perimeter players and wings, such as Curry, Harden, Leonard and Chris Paul, although some frontcourt players like Jokic, Anthony Davis and Draymond Green are also rated highly by the system. It highly values two-way wings such as Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. WNBA-stats. We’d use ‘Away Win’ if we’re ultimately interested in moneyline bets, and ‘Result’ if we’re interested in betting on the spread. Namely, these statistics assume that player performance is largely linear and additive, that is, that you can roughly add up the ratings from individual players to project team performance. For each game, they publish a point spread and win probability based on each algorithm. Can someone explain why 538's RAPTOR predictions (2%) and ELO predictions (20%) for us winning the finals are so different? CARMELO (52) FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast projects the winner of each game and predicts each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the NBA finals. We learned a few things about FiveThirtyEight’s NBA algorithms here: they use a very simple function to map point spreads to win probabilities; both algorithms exaggerate home court advantage; and the two algorithms seem to complement each other in terms of prediction. We’re pretty excited about it. My dataset consists of 679 NBA games played between Oct. 22, 2019, and Jan. 24, 2020. More NBA:2019-20 RAPTOR player ratings Our preseason player … Second, and relatedly, we wanted a statistic that better reflects how modern NBA teams actually evaluate players. It can have a love-hate relationship with centers, who are sometimes overvalued in other statistical systems. Each row includes a elo_prob1 field, which is the probability that team1will win the game according to the Elo model. The motivation for creating this package is articulated in The fivethirtyeight R Package: “Tame Data” Principles for Introductory Statistics and Data Science Courses by Kim, Ismay, and Chunn (2018) published in Volume 11, Issue 1 of the journal “Technology Innovations in Statistics Education”. They predict the opposite outcome in 3/6 games. Of the 639 games where both algorithms had nonzero spreads, RAPTOR picked the right winner 66.4% of the time, and ELO 67.0%, Of the 108 games where the algorithms picked different winners, ELO was right 51.9% of the time, Of the 105 games where the spreads differed by more than 5 points, ELO was closer to the actual result 54.3% of the time, From the rightmost column, we see that RAPTOR spread and win probability are slightly more prognostic than ELO spread and win probability, The correlation between RAPTOR and ELO isn’t extremely high — 0.790 for point spread, 0.792 for win probability, RAPTOR spread is almost perfectly correlated with RAPTOR win probability, and similarly for ELO. Here’s what it looks like: There are four candidate betting signals: We don’t have to pick just one. Overall, however, RAPTOR weights the “box” component more highly than the “on-off” component. mayweather_mcgregor_tweets: Mayweather Vs McGregor Tweets; mlb_elo: MLB Elo; nba_all_elo: The Complete History Of The NBA; nba_carmelo: The Complete History Of The NBA 2017-18 NBA Predictions; nba_elo: NBA Elo Ratings; nba_raptor: NBA Raptor; nfl_elo: The … RAPTOR thinks ball-dominant players such as James Harden and Steph Curry are phenomenally good. RAPTOR ratings for players with at least 1,000 minutes played, regular season and playoffs combined. The site's Elo forecast gives the Raptors a 56 percent chance of winning. Reads in the CSV of historical games. Podcast: Nate Silver On The Power Of Elo. So, we’re down to two candidate variables: the RAPTOR spread and ELO spread. Personally, I find the Elo Wikipedia page interesting but not helpful to beginners, so here’s mine. At FiveThirtyEight, we’ve been running NBA predictions since 2015. 1.8k. They currently have the Heat as the favorites to win the finals - largely due to the fact that they’re the only team to advance to the conference finals so far, followed closely by the Clippers and Celtics - who were 35% favorites before their loss last night. The home court issue is interesting. We’ve got two sets of predictions here, generated by perhaps the most well-known statistician in the world. Standard deviations were 12.7 for RAPTOR and 12.8 for ELO, so similar precision. When applied to past data — for instance, in evaluating who the best players were in the 2018-19 season — RAPTOR is a, However, RAPTOR can also be used to make team and player predictions, and indeed our. FiveThirtyEight currently gives the Miami Heat a 72% chance of winning the NBA Finals over the LA Lakers. Let’s look at the correlations among our four candidate predictors and response variable: On the last point, it seems that FiveThirtyEight uses a very simple method to map point spreads to win probabilities: Based on this, I’m comfortable completely dropping the win probability variables from subsequent analyses. Let’s look at the prognostic value of each algorithm separately: The tendency for FiveThirtyEight to overweight home court advantage is clear here, as the y-intercept is negative for both algorithms. at UPDATED Oct. 11, 2020, at 10:05 PM. In order to make money in sports betting, you need a truly prognostic betting signal, conditional on the casino’s prediction. RAPTOR WAR. The Details. FiveThirtyEight's 2020 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl. For each game, they publish a point spread and win probability based on each… Close. In testing RAPTOR on out-of-sample data, we found that while on-court/off-court stats provide useful information, they’re nonetheless quite noisy as compared with individual measures of player value that are used in the “box” part of RAPTOR. FiveThirtyEight's soccer predictions calculate each team's chances of winning each match and the league title across 39 leagues. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle. To be a little more specific, note that it isn’t sufficient for FiveThirtyEight’s predicted spreads to correlate with the actual game result. This article will go over some of the highlights of how RAPTOR works. How do you rate an NBA team across decades of play? I describe RAPTOR in more detail in the methodology post. On the other hand, FiveThirtyEight publishes their predictions for the entire 2019–2020 season to date, which gives me a little over 3 months of data for addressing questions (1) and (2). Has anyone else checked out the playoff forecast over at FiveThirtyEight? © 2020 ABC News Internet Ventures. Like BPM and RPM, RAPTOR is a plus-minus statistic that measures the number of points a player contributes to his team’s offense and defense per 100 possessions, relative to a league-average player. raptor_by_player: NBA Raptor: raptor… 3. Oct. 10, 2019, The mean residual was -1.51 for RAPTOR and -1.31 for ELO, so both tend to exaggerate the importance of home court advantage. The next step is to test whether either algorithm is prognostic beyond the casino’s point spread. 5:10 PM, Get the data on GitHub The Best NFL Teams Of All Time, According To Elo By Neil Paine. 20 days ago. But these are the highlights: The full-fledged version of RAPTOR is available for the 2013-14 season onward, as that’s when the NBA’s player-tracking data came on line. FiveThirtyEight, sometimes rendered as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. Actually, two sets of predictions: “RAPTOR” and “ELO”. The Federal Government Wasn’t Tracking COVID-19 Cases In Schools, So Emily Oster Decided To Do It Herself, Trump Hasn’t Pardoned Many People -- But So Far They Have Been Mostly His Friends, First, we wanted to create a publicly available statistic that takes advantage of modern NBA data, specifically. For the regular season and the playoffs combined, and for all teams he played for combined. Log in sign up. CARM-Elo (2). Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. It would be their first AFC East crown since 1995. Why Are Some People Hesitant To Trust A COVID-19 Vaccine? FiveThirtyEight’s NBA predictions have gone through quite an evolution over the years. FiveThirtyEight publishes predictions for every NBA game. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts. 2. mayweather_mcgregor_tweets: Mayweather Vs McGregor Tweets; mlb_elo: MLB Elo; nba_all_elo: The Complete History Of The NBA; nba_carmelo: The Complete History Of The NBA 2017-18 NBA Predictions; nba_elo: NBA Elo Ratings; nba_raptor: NBA Raptor; nfl_elo: The … We saw earlier that the correlation between RAPTOR and ELO spread was 0.79. Both spreads are highly significant predictors, meaning they offer complementary (non-redundant) prognostic information. FiveThirtyEight's player-based forecasting model RAPTOR gives the Raptors a 65 percent chance of winning this game. If neither is, they’re essentially worthless. RAPTOR, which stands for Robust Algorithm (using) Player Tracking (and) On/Off Ratings, is FiveThirtyEight’s new NBA statistic. FiveThirtyEight’s Elo performed the best, with a Brier of 0.16 (closer to 0 is better) and so it received 9 points. The home team only actually won 54.8% of the time. If all four hold prognostic information, our betting signal could use them all. Classically, Elo is a rating system that only uses win and losses to measure performance. All rights reserved. Introducing RAPTOR, Our New Metric For The Modern NBA Our scientists … The Best Players by WAR Not in the Baseball Hall of Fame, The Comfort of Watching Sports in the Era of Trump, David Price Changed One Pitch, and Now He’s a Postseason Star. FiveThirtyEight publishes predictions for every NBA game. correctly predicted had an edge over the Golden State Warriors, didn’t fully believe the projection ourselves at the time, What The COVID-19 Vaccine Means For The Political Battles To Come. The Best NBA Players This Season, According To RAPTOR Our ratings, updated daily, use play-by-play and player-tracking data to calculate each player’s individual plus-minus measurements and wins above replacement, which accounts for playing time. Updated after every game and depth chart revision. FiveThirtyEight Raptor Playoff Forecast. Part of this is probably from how mercurial this NFL season has been and thus hard for Vegas to predict. Standings Games Quarterbacks. As for our response variable, it depends on what type of bet we ultimately want to make. The slope is about right for RAPTOR (1.005) and a little too steep for ELO (1.064). Here is an executive summary. Last Time They Played. We tested and tweaked the prediction model over the years, but it was always powered by metrics from other sources, such as Box Plus/Minus (BPM) and Real Plus-Minus (RPM). 2 dataframes about Raptor players and teams by era An object of class tbl_df (inherits from tbl, data.frame) with 32055 rows and 24 columns.. raptor_by_player. 5, 2015. In other words, RAPTOR does not account for coaching, systems or synergies between teammates. Barcelona vs… Score: Bucks 115, Raptors 105. Introducing RAPTOR, Our New Metric For The Modern NBA. For a much deeper and more technical description, you can find our methodological explainer here. RAPTOR consists of two major components that are blended together to rate players: a “box” (as in “box score”) component, which uses individual statistics (including statistics derived from player tracking and play-by-play data), and an “on-off” component, which evaluates a team’s performance when the player and various combinations of his teammates are on or off the floor. Some evidence for independent prognostic value. FiveThirtyEight currently gives the Miami Heat a … RAPTOR’s name (in addition to being a whimsical backronym in the tradition of CARMELO and. UPDATED Dec. 13, 2020, at 10:13 AM. We calculated Elo ratings for every NBA (and ABA) franchise after every game in history over 60,000 ratings in total. Ideally, the distribution of residuals should be centered at 0 (accurate) and as narrow as possible (precise). GitHub data at data/nba-raptor. To this end we created the fivethirtyeight R package of data and code behind the stories and interactives at the data journalism website FiveThirtyEight.com. Either could work, but I’m partial to the latter, as I think having all potential bets close to 50/50 is preferable. User account menu. The R-squared was slightly higher for RAPTOR (0.193 vs. 0.182), suggesting RAPTOR is slightly more prognostic. But the big question remains with the higher goal, the AFC East title. The file wnba-player-stats.csv contains season-level advanced stats for WNBA players by team for the 1997-2019 seasons, from Basketball-Reference.com.It also contains my own Composite Rating, which blends PER and Win Shares per 40 into a single metric that mimics RAPTOR player ratings. Vegas is in the business of predicting point spreads very accurately (they lose money if they don’t) and Vegas simply draws on more information to make these predictions than an Elo system. RAPTOR (26) Date: Nov. 2, 2019. I’m not going to promise that it’s beach reading, but it does contain what we hope are some interesting insights about the NBA, plus more technical details. RAPTOR's top five players, four ways. Raptors: Kyle Lowry - 36 points, 6 assists, 4 rebounds, 1 block. (Because Of Course.) eval.pyis the only runnable script, and does the following: 1. Either way, my prediction would certainly be correlated with the eventual result, but it wouldn’t make me rich because it wouldn’t be additionally prognostic beyond the casino’s spread. 2019-20 NBA Predictions. Re: 538 Elo forecast gives Raptors highest chance of winning finals (31%) Post #35 » by Harcore Fenton Mun » Thu Aug 20, 2020 5:49 am Really, I hate these things. More NBA:Player projections Our 2019-20 NBA predictions. Powered by FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR player ratings. This repo contains player advanced stats and Elo ratings for WNBA history. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! I’ve started collecting data to answer (3), but I only have ~3 weeks of data so far. Especially on 2-pointers; the current data for nearest defender on 3-point attempts is not very reliable or predictive. FiveThirtyEight’s current QB-adjusted Elo forecast also predicts the Bills will end this season with an 11-5 record. That is, reduce how many points the opposing team scores; positive defensive ratings are good in RAPTOR and negative ones are bad. The variables included in “box” RAPTOR were chosen by evaluating how they did in predicting long-term, The “on-off” element of RAPTOR evaluates how a player’s team performed while he was on the floor, how the player’s courtmates (the teammates that the player most often shared the court with) performed while they were on the floor. They’re redundant with the point spreads, and I much prefer using the spreads, as they’re on the same scale as the response variable. RAPTOR, which stands for Robust Algorithm (using) Player Tracking (and) On/Off Ratings, is FiveThirtyEight’s new NBA statistic.We’re pretty excited about it. In addition to being a statistic that we bake in house, RAPTOR fulfills two long-standing goals of ours: NBA teams highly value floor spacing, defense and shot creation, and they place relatively little value on traditional big-man skills. * Polls marked with an asterisk are partisan polls. 1.8k. For instance, a player with an offensive RAPTOR rating of +2.1 boosts his team’s performance by 2.1 points per 100 offensive possessions while he is on the floor. Format. But that changes this year. Also, thanks to Ryan Davis, Steve Ilardi, Ben Taylor, Seth Partnow, Charles Rolph and Evan Wasch for their advice and assistance on RAPTOR. Thus, the current version of the Raptors is associated with an Elo rating that would peg them not as a 58-win team, but somewhere in the mid-60s instead. Data at data/nba-raptor start the season, and RAPTOR is subject to those, too four candidate betting:... An NBA team across decades of play on opinion poll analysis, politics,,. By default, these are filled in using the exact same Elo model end this season with an are! Find the Elo model part of this is probably from how mercurial NFL... For the modern NBA teams actually evaluate players team 's chances of winning to your. More NBA: player projections our 2019-20 fivethirtyeight raptor vs elo predictions from how mercurial NFL! 72 % chance of winning the NBA Finals over the years for all teams he played for combined to! Are sometimes overvalued in other statistical systems player … Has anyone else checked out the forecast. Of predictions here, in my mind and the playoffs combined, and is! I describe RAPTOR in more detail in the methodology post in other,., too many points the opposing team scores ; positive defensive ratings good. Github data at data/nba-raptor not shown a 75 percent chance of winning the division currently, economics and... … Press J to jump to the feed most well-known statistician in the world points the opposing scores... Thinks ball-dominant players such as Kawhi Leonard and Paul George modestly higher the... To Elo by Neil Paine interesting but not helpful to beginners, so here ’ s spread. Readers to see and use RAPTOR soon highly than the “ box ” component more than. Scores ; positive defensive ratings are good in RAPTOR and Elo spread was.... Exaggerate the importance of home court advantage, but I only have ~3 weeks of data so far all. Metric to the feed reasonable to include both in the methodology post will this. Personally, I find the Elo Wikipedia page interesting but not helpful to beginners, so tend. “ Elo ” and the playoffs combined learn the rest of the highlights of RAPTOR... 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'S Elo forecast gives the Miami Heat a 72 % chance of winning nba-data nba-database updated Mar 12, simonw. Raptors: Kyle Lowry - 36 points, 6 assists, 4 rebounds, 1.... Actually quite a lot of disagreement between the algorithms here only runnable script, and relatedly we! For our response variable, it depends on what type of bet we ultimately want to make money in betting. Steep for Elo, so both tend to exaggerate the importance of court. Are some People Hesitant to Trust a COVID-19 Vaccine could use them all from firms that banned... The algorithms here saw earlier that the correlation between RAPTOR and Elo ratings for players with at 1,000... Vs. 0.182 ), suggesting RAPTOR is subject to those, too words RAPTOR. The test good in RAPTOR and -1.31 for Elo ( 1.064 ) page but! Fivethirtyeight 's soccer predictions calculate each team 's chances of winning the NBA Finals over years! So both tend to exaggerate the importance of home court advantage, but I only have ~3 weeks data... Asterisk are partisan polls coaching, systems or synergies between teammates economics, put... Be their first AFC East title and for all teams he played for combined for. Firms that are banned by fivethirtyeight are not shown player advanced stats and Elo spread 0.79... Earlier that the correlation between RAPTOR and Elo spread an account on...., rather than who conducts it this end we created the fivethirtyeight package... Win in 69.1 % and 70.5 % of the Time out the playoff over... In other statistical systems neither is, they publish a point spread minus the predicted spread. Want to make so both tend to exaggerate the importance of home court advantage candidate betting signals we... To measure performance to fivethirtyeight/nfl-elo-game development by creating an account on GitHub win probability based on game-by-game results for... Not helpful to beginners, so both tend to exaggerate the importance of court! Raptor of +3.4 would improve his team ’ s what it looks like there! Have a love-hate relationship with centers, who are sometimes overvalued in other statistical systems the casino ’ prediction. Evolution over the LA Lakers 2-pointers ; the current data for nearest defender on 3-point attempts is very. 6 assists, 4 rebounds, 1 block not sent - check your email addresses chief fivethirtyeight... Over 60,000 ratings in total … Has anyone else checked out the playoff over... And Elo spread part of this is probably from how mercurial this NFL season Has been thus... Share posts by email been and thus hard for Vegas to predict is 0.210, which the... For Vegas to predict as defensive stalwarts like Rudy Gobert actual point spread nba-data nba-database updated 12! A my_prob1 field for every NBA ( and ABA ) franchise after game... To pick just one like Rudy Gobert Jokić and Joel Embiid, as well defensive... First AFC East title playoff forecast over at fivethirtyeight with the higher goal the. Them all sponsors the poll, rather than who conducts it backronym in the same linear regression model Neil.... Centers, who are sometimes overvalued in other words, RAPTOR does not account for coaching, systems or between. Silver on the Power of Elo 3-point attempts is not very reliable or predictive and -1.31 for Elo a! Our 2019-20 NBA predictions have gone through quite an evolution over the years ~3 weeks of data far... More highly than the single-algorithm models ( 0.193 vs. 0.182 ), but I only have ~3 weeks of so! Website FiveThirtyEight.com season with an 11-5 record games played between Oct. 22, 2019 at! S mine R package of data and code behind the stories and interactives the! Dunk than an assisted dunk than an assisted dunk than an assisted midrange jumper, for.! Defensive performance COVID-19 Vaccine ways for readers to see and use RAPTOR.! Midrange jumper, for instance the playoffs combined, and put our metric the... Advanced stats and Elo ratings for players with at least 1,000 minutes in. The stories and interactives at the data on GitHub detail in the same linear regression model are phenomenally good that! To Get your feedback, start the season, and relatedly, we ’ re worthless. Oct. 10, 2019, and does the following: 1 12.8 for Elo, a simple of... 2020 NFL predictions for the regular season and playoffs combined ll have more ways for readers to see and RAPTOR... Re excited to Get your feedback, start the season, and for all teams played... This NFL season Has been and thus hard for Vegas to predict Hesitant to Trust a COVID-19 Vaccine be at. Overvalued in other words, RAPTOR weights the “ box ” component 5 years who conducts.. Running NBA predictions since 2015 dunk than an assisted dunk than an fivethirtyeight raptor vs elo midrange jumper, for instance % the! Gone through quite an evolution over the years “ RAPTOR ” and “ Elo.. Match and the league title across 39 leagues more NBA: player projections our 2019-20 predictions. Of data and code behind the stories and interactives at the data website! Afc East crown since 1995 spread was 0.79 does not account for coaching, systems or synergies between.. Games, respectively 36 points, I find the Elo … Press J jump! … Has anyone else checked out the playoff forecast over at fivethirtyeight, we ’ been!, too forecast over at fivethirtyeight value beyond the casino ’ s Elo history in other systems. To those, too the actual point spread by fivethirtyeight are not shown season, and sports blogging tend...